Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-13T00:46:33

GOES19 high energy (>2MeV) electron flux was predominantly moderate over the past 24 hours, but temporarily reached High levels between 12/1510-1535 UTC under the residual influence of a HSS from CH22. This was a weak feature and is not expected to be sufficient for notable electron enhancement in the radiation belts, but it brings a chance of periods of High flux at GEO during diurnal maximum through to Day 3 (15 Feb).

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to persist below the Active level, although perhaps rising a little during the period. The latest MOSWOC REFM is also forecasting for fluence to remain below the Active level through the next three days, which is considered reasonable guidance.