MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-12T00:44:06
GOES19 high energy (>2MeV) electron flux has been moderate over the last 24 hours, perhaps due to the weak fast wind recently experienced from CH22/-. This was a weak feature and is not expected to be sufficient for notable electron enhancement in the radiation belts, but it may give a risk of periods of high flux at GEO during diurnal maximum over the next few days.
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to persist below the Active level, although perhaps rising a little during the period. The latest MOSWOC REFM is now also forecasting for fluence to remain below the Active level through the next three days, which is considered reasonable guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-02-12T00:44:06 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |