Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-10T12:26:23

GOES19 high energy electron flux is currently varying between Moderate and High, after the recent fast wind enhancement from CH21/-. The onset of any fast wind from CH22/- early on day 1 (10 Feb) may lead to observe values dropping to Background for a time. However, this is a small feature, with any solar wind enhancement expected to be limited, quickly easing from later day 1 into day 2 (10-11 Feb), with no further enhancements expected. While the high energy flux is likely to increase again, with further diurnal peaks at High, this is low confidence.   

The associated 24-hour fluence is now is a slow decline. However, any fast wind from CH22/- may bring a faster decrease to the fluence. Then there is a chance of fluence levels rising again, bringing a slight chance of Active fluence later the period. MOSWOC REFM is currently underestimating values, however this is now providing a reasonable guide to the overall expected trend.