Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-08T00:49:18

Geomagnetic activity arising from CH21/- had resulted in a suppression of observed >2MeV electron flux at GOES19. However this HSS is easing and electron flux reached high levels at the diurnal maximum on 07 Feb and similar or higher is likely again on Day 1 (08 Feb). However, a further HSS from CH22/- and any glancing CME influence is likely to knock this back once again so high flux levels are likely to be short lived. A further resurgence at the end of the period is possible once the HSS from CH22 wanes. 

The 24-hour fluence is currently rising, and it is currently considered likely that fluence will reach above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on Day 1 and probably into Day 2 (09 Feb). Thereafter a decline in fluence is most probable, perhaps followed by a further rise later in the period. Confidence is low by this time, however, especially as the electron forecast inherits low confidence from the geomagnetic forecast. Fluence observations were well below MOSWOC REFM's recent forecasts, however observations have risen to meet the forecast. REFM has been volatile in its forecasts of late, and won't be taking the upcoming HSS into account.