Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-07T00:22:53

Geomagnetic activity arising from CH21/- in the past 36 hours or so has resulted in a suppression of observed high energy electron counts at GOES. A degree of recovery is expected as this activity eases and the Van Allen belts recover, however the magnitude of this recovery is low confidence. The driving coronal hole is very different in stature to last pass having been eroded by the development nearby of AR4366, leaving a shorter-lived and less intense feature, and the recovery may further be delayed by CH22/- and any glancing CME incidence into the new UTC working week.

Overall, there is a peak Chance of Active 24-hour fluence, perhaps coming in two spells given the possibility of fast wind and coronal hole interruptions, but with low confidence in the forecast. MOSWOC REFM is proving volatile to current observations and has recently trended sharply downwards in its estimations, however dissimilarity of the disc between passes and the presence of CMEs on both this rotation and last makes its forecast less reliable.