Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-05T12:49:41

The diurnal oscillation in high energy electron flux has been High for much of the past week, however geomagnetic activity within the last 24 hours has resulted in a recent decline at GEO which may yet result in fluence falling below the 24-hour integrated Active threshold inside the current UTC day.

Geomagnetic activity at present appears to be of mixed origin - both CME and coronal hole-generated, and the extent of any eventual recovery is therefore low confidence. The coronal holes on this rotation are much-reduced in size and stature versus last pass, and both rotations had interrupting CME influence. Eventual fluence is largely based on an assessment of the ability of the current solar wind to resupply the Van Allen belts once current activity wanes, and perhaps rates as a Chance into the UTC weekend. MOSWOC REFM is not considered a useful guide in this instance given the dissimilarity between rotations.