Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-05T00:10:01

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has been moderate to high. However, the glancing impact from the 01 Feb CME, along with anticipated mild coronal hole influences, should act to redistribute and reduce electron levels through 05-06 Feb.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to continue above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold at first on Day 1 (05 Feb), but with an increasing chance of falling below Active into Day 2 (06 Feb) and beyond. MOSWOC REFM and recurrence are both significantly under-estimating electron fluence at present, and although do not account for CME arrivals, the reducing trend to below the Active threshold by the end of the period looks ok.