Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-02-04T00:08:56

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has been mostly high for the past week or so, following the significant CME arrival on 19 Jan and the subsequent strong fast wind connection to CH17/-. This has resulted in persistently high flux values. In the short term there are few sources of disturbance that could significantly decease these values, and only a gradual declining trend is anticipated. However, the possible glancing impact from the CME associated with the recent X8 flare, along with the potential influence of any HSS from CH19/- may act to redistribute and reduce electron levels, especially if these combine. This is most likely from Day 2 (05 Feb) onwards.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to persist at generally Active levels initially. Days 2-3 (05-06 Feb) may see a more significant reduction due to the potential for geomagnetic enhancements, as mentioned above. MOSWOC REFM and recurrence are both significantly under-estimating electron fluence, but support a general declining trend through the period.