Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-31T00:39:02

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has been mostly high for the past week or so, following the significant CME arrival on 19 Jan and the subsequent strong HSS from CH17/-. There are no features in the forecast which would have the potential to cause a dropout in electron flux, with levels likely staying high, and perhaps rising further on Days 1 and 2 (31 Jan-01 Feb) as the HSS wanes. Later in the period, a slow decline in the electron flux may begin, but confidence in the timing and speed of any decline is low.

The associated 24-hour fluence is well above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, on a slowly rising trend. A continuation of the rising trend is most probable at first as the HSS influence wanes, with a chance of becoming Very Active (1e9 integrated pfu). A decline becomes more probable later in the period, with some uncertainty. MOSWOC REFM is currently over-estimating the fluence values, however it is now indicating a decline through the next three days which is then likely to be an under-estimate.