Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-29T13:19:01

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has been predominately high over the last several days, but dropped to moderate levels at the diurnal minimum during the morning of the 28th Jan, likely due to the arrival of the HSS from CH17/-. Electron flux recovered to high and briefly very high levels during the UTC day however. The charging of electrons in the radiation belt from the CME event last week, combined with the likely further charging occurring from CH17/- should contribute to electron flux levels staying largely High, perhaps rising to Very High later in the period as the HSS wanes.

The associated 24-hour fluence is above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, on a largely flat trend. A rising trend is most probable through the period as the HSS influence starts to wane, with a rising Slight Chance of becoming Very Active. This trend is indicated by MOSWOC REFM, which is tentatively accepted for now.