Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-29T00:43:13

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has been predominately high over the last several days, but dropped to moderate levels at the diurnal minimum during the morning of the 28th Jan, likely due to the arrival of the HSS from CH17/-. Electron flux recovered to high levels during the UTC day however. Confidence in the forecast is currently particularly low. However the recent charging of electrons in the radiation belt from the CME event last week may contribute to electron flux levels staying slightly higher than might otherwise be expected, even in the face of the HSS arrival. The HSS itself is also likely to contribute additional charging, with electron flux therefore expected to increase again later in the forecast period.

The associated 24-hour fluence is above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and is likely to show a declining trend through Days 1-2 (29-30 Jan) as a result of the HSS arrival. Whether fluence will decline below the Active threshold is open to some doubt however. Fluence may then start to rise again from Day 3 (31 Jan) as the HSS influence starts to wane. This trend is now indicated by MOSWOC REFM, which is tentatively accepted for now.