Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-28T00:56:07

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux is currently High, where it has been for the past few days. Flux has been on a sharp downward trend since 27/2015 UTC and currently sits just above the high threshold. The arrival of the HSS from CH17/- is expected to continue to reduce flux to background to Moderate levels through Day 1 (28 Jan). Electron flux is currently expected to remain at these levels through Day 2 (29 Jan) but may start to see an upward trend back to high levels from Day 3 (30 Jan), this is currently low confidence however. 

The associated 24-hour fluence is above the High (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and expected to remain so for the start of the period, before reducing below the active threshold through Day 1 (29 Jan) as a result of the HSS arrival. Fluence may start to rise from Day 3 (30 Jan) with a greater chance of rising above the active again threshold by Day 4 (31 Jan). This trend is currently represented by both the ENLIL model and Recurrence data and are thought to be giving good guidance.