MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-23T13:03:33
GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux is currently Moderate to High and is expected to remain around this level through the forecast period, perhaps becoming predominately high as the HSS from CH15 gradually declines.
The associated 24-hour fluence is above the High (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and expected to persist here through the period. MOSWOC REFM is currently underestimating the fluence, which is likely to residual high energy proton contamination after the CME arrival on the 19th Jan. Through the next 24 hours REFM should become more reliable as the proton storms have subsided. Currently REFM is indicating an slow, upwards trend in the fluence, which is broadly accepted.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-01-23T13:03:33 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 5% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 80% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 70% | 1% |