Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-22T13:29:38

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has become High. The recent CME impact has likely disrupted electron counts within the Van Allen belts, and rendered counts unreliable. As geomagnetic activity likely decreases and uncertain fast wind influence persists the risk of High electron flux levels likely increases.  

The associated 24-hour fluence now just above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. Electron fluence is now expected to remain generally above the Active threshold pending further evolution in the flow, although confidence reduces steadily into the period. Note that the MOSWOC REFM model forecast does not account for the recent CME arrival, with Electron fluence readings omitted from 19/1200UTC until the 21/2100UTC due to CME related proton contamination, as such its output is not favoured, with a generally flat trend more like recurrence preferred.