Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-21T13:29:22

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux was briefly High from 21/0950UTC to 21/1025UTC, peaking at 3.3e3 at 21/1005UTC. Otherwise the aforementioned electron flux has been between Moderate to Background levels since the CME arrival. It is expected to mainly remain Moderate to Background Day 1 (21 Jan) but with the risk of brief diurnal High intervals. A renewed increase is possible from Day 2 (21 Jan) as CME influences wane, though confidence in timings of this increase is low, and electron flux levels may remain subdued by the fast solar winds until later in the period. 

The associated 24-hour fluence is below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, although contamination of electron flux levels on the 19 January due to proton storming has rendered electron fluence readings unreliable. As a result, electron fluence readings are currently omitted from the REFM model observations from 19/1200UTC until the 21/2100UTC observation. Electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold through Day 1 (21 Jan). There is an increasing chance of electron fluence levels rising above the active threshold from Day 2 (22 Jan) in response to potential electron flux increases, though confidence remains low. The MOSWOC REFM does not account for the CME arrival, and its output is therefore not favoured.