Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-21T00:53:07

GOES-19 high-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux has returned to moderate to background levels since the CME arrival and is expected to remain at the level for most of Day 1 (21 Jan). A renewed increase is possible from Day 2 (21 Jan) as CME influences wane, though confidence in timings of this increase is low, and electron flux levels may remain subdued by the fast solar winds until later in the period. 

The associated 24-hour fluence is now below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, although contamination of electron flux levels on the 19 January due to proton storming has rendered electron fluence readings unreliable. As a result, electron fluence readings are currently omitted from the REFM model observations except for the 21/0000UTC observation. Electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold through Day 1 (20 Jan). There is an increasing chance of electron fluence levels rising above the active threshold from Day 2 (22 Jan) in response to potential electron flux increases, though confidence remains low. The MOSWOC REFM does not account for the CME arrival, and its output is therefore not favoured.