Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-19T12:56:19

GOES19 high-energy (>2MeV) electron flux has been high over the last 24 hours, and is likely to stay that way until the expected CME arrival, either later on Day 1 (19 Jan) or early on Day 2 (20 Jan). The CME arrival is expected to cause a drop out in electron flux at GEO, but strong winds and potential geomagnetic activity associated with this feature may cause a rise again later in the period after CME effects wane.

The associated 24-hour fluence is currently above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but a sharp decline is probable after the CME arrival. Any recovery in fluence levels is unlikely until the very end of this period. MOSWOC REFM is now forecasting fluence to drop below the Active threshold, despite the fact it won't be taking into account the CME arrival.