MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-19T00:59:01
GOES-18 high-energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is currently at S1 level following the recent X1.9 flare. GOES19 high-energy electron flux is Moderate to High. Daily High flux during diurnal maxima is expected, perhaps becoming suppressed with the likely arrival of a CME from Day 2 (20 Jan).
The associated 24-hour fluence has recently just risen above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu), although is likely to decline to below the Active threshold with the likelihood of a CME arrival on Day 2 (20 Jan) and any significant geomagnetic activity.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-01-19T00:59:01 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 90% | 5% |
| Day 2 | 70% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 5% |