Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-17T12:20:49

GOES19 high energy electron flux was High until 16/2030UTC, peaking at 8700 pfu at 16/1510UTC, becoming Moderate thereafter. Flux is expected to remain Moderate with a chance of diurnal high levels, before more persistent high flux levels are likely to return through day 3 or day 4 (19-20 Jan) as the geomagnetic activity eases.

The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to fall below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on Day 1, then remain so until later day 3 or day 4 when fluence may return to Active due to a waning HSS. The recurrence observed in MOSWOC REFM is deemed good guidance.