Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-15T00:09:03

GOES19 high energy electron flux has been mainly high over the last 24 hours in response to recent CME and HSS influence. As the current HSS gradually wanes electron flux levels are likely to remain similar or perhaps gradually increase. Levels are expected to be mostly high in the coming days. The next major feature is likely into Day 3 (17 Jan), with the expected onset of a HSS likely seeing a reduction in flux values as geomagnetic activity and solar wind pressure increase.

The associated 24-hour fluence is above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and continues on a gradual rising trend. It seems probable that fluence levels will remain above Active for much of this period, likely reducing from later on Day 3 (17 Jan) as the next HSS arrives. MOSWOC REFM is broadly supporting this general trend, although the values for Days 1 and 2 (15-16 Jan) may be on the low side.