Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-13T12:04:17

GOES19 high energy electron flux has been mainly high over the last 24 hours, in response to recent CME and HSS effects. As the current HSS from CH12/- and CH14/- gradually wanes, and no further CME or HSS arrivals are expected in the period, a dropout in electron flux levels appears unlikely in the near future. Levels are expected to be mostly high in the coming days. 

The associated 24-hour fluence has risen above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and continues on a rising trend. It seems most probable that fluence levels will remain above Active for much of this period. MOSWOC REFM is forecasting fluence to be above or near the Active threshold through the next three days, and is currently under-estimating fluence levels.