Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-13T00:29:44

GOES19 high energy electron flux has been moderate to high over the last 24 hours, in response to recent CME and HSS effects. As the current HSS from CH12/- and CH14/- already appears to be established, and no further CME or HSS arrivals are expected, a dropout in electron flux levels appears unlikely in the near future. Levels are expected to be moderate to high, perhaps mostly high, in the coming days. 

The associated 24-hour fluence is currently just below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on a rising trend, and is expected to go above Active early on Day 1 (13 Jan). Thereafter, it seems most probable that fluence levels will remain above Active for much of this period. MOSWOC REFM is forecasting fluence to be above or near the Active threshold through the next three days, and this may be an under-estimate.