Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-09T12:31:47

GOES19 high energy electron flux is expected to start at mainly Moderate levels, before dropping to mostly Background during days 1 and 2 (09 and 10 Jan) in association with geomagnetic activity from either weak CME arrivals or more likely the current HSS. A slight increase in the flux later in the period is possible, following the waning influence of the HSS from CH12 and CH13. The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below Active (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu), having recently shown a marked downward trend. Later in the period a slight upward trend is possible as the flux increases slightly.

MOSWOC REFM is also indicating a slight upward trend, while keeping the fluence below the Active threshold, which is accepted as good guidance.