MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-08T12:34:45
High energy (>2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19 has been mostly Moderate with brief High periods at diurnal peak. No further notable enhancement is expected, and with the potential for further weak glancing CMEs before the likely CH enhancement on days 1-2 (08-09 Jan), the observed flux at GEO is expected to remain relatively subdued. As any fast wind influence recedes later day 2 (09 Jan) or more likely day 3 (10 Jan) flux may rise to Moderate, perhaps briefly High.
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below Active (below 1e8 integrated pfu), as supported by MOSWOC REFM.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2026-01-08T12:34:45 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |