Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-07T00:28:35

High energy (>2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19 has been mostly moderate since the arrival of a CME on 04 Jan, just touching high at the diurnal peak on 06 Jan. Electron flux is likely to remain at a similar level during Day 1 into Day 2 (07-08 Jan), likely just reaching high levels at the diurnal peaks. The expected arrival of a HSS either later on Day 2 or on Day 3 (08-09 Jan) will probably suppress flux levels once again, with any recovery unlikely until after the end of the period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently below the Active threshold and is likely to remain that way through this period. However, there is a slight chance of fluence reaching above Active on Days 1-2, until the HSS onset which will likely cause a drop in fluence levels. MOSWOC REFM is predicting fluence levels below Active through the next three days, which seems reasonable.