Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-05T12:31:00

High energy (>2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19, was high prior to the arrival of a CME later on the 04 Jan. Electrons then were suppressed to moderate to background levels were they are expected to remain Days 1 and 2 (05-06 Jan). By days 3 and 4 (07-08 Jan), flux is likely to recover somewhat, bringing longer spells of Moderate to High, mainly during its diurnal cycle. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently below the Active threshold, and expected to see a declining trend initially in response to the CME arrival late on the 04 Jan. Electron fluence is expected to remain below the active threshold, but from Day 3 (07 Jan), fluence levels may approach the active threshold in response to rising flux levels but this is low confidence. MOSWOC REFM is currently providing poor guidance as this model is unable to incorporate the influence of any CMEs.