Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-04T00:28:10

High energy (>2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19, has been Moderate to High during its diurnal peak. Electrons are likely to become suppressed by any subsequent CME influence on day 1 (04 Jan), with longer periods of Background flux possible. By days 3 and 4 (06-07 Jan), flux is likely to recover somewhat, bringing longer spells of Moderate to High, mainly during its diurnal cycle. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently below the Active threshold, and expected to see a declining trend in response to the anticipated CME arrival on 04 Jan. This is despite MOSWOC REFM, which is currently providing very poor guidance as this model is unable to incorporate the influence of any CMEs. This has a strong rising trend due to the current Elevated solar winds, which would only be the cause if the current enhancement was due to the onset of fast solar winds, and no further CME influence was forecast.