Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-01-01T12:35:13

High energy (>2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19 has been at High levels over recent days, but is now at moderate levels. There is a chance of flux levels temporarily reaching diurnally High on Days 1 and 4 (01-04 Jan), initially because of residual electron levels accompanied by a lack of significant geomagnetic activity. Later in the period electron levels may increase following the CME arrival. 

The associated 24 hour high energy electron fluence is expected to remain below Active throughout.. MOSWOC REFM is currently overestimating the observed fluence, but does show a plausible trend, keeping the fluence below Active.