Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-12-31T00:16:40

High energy (>2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19 has recently been at High levels, but is now at background to moderate levels. Onset of fast winds later during day 1, peaking day 2 (31 Dec-01 Jan), along with the potential CME glance day 2 (01 Jan) will likely suppress levels, with flux likely remaining at similar levels with a chance of reaching diurnally high on days 1 and 4 (31 Dec and 02 Jan).

The associated 24 hr fluence is now likely to soon drift below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) in coming hours. Any recovery by day 4 (03 Jan) is unlikely to be sufficient to bring a return of Active fluence. MOSWOC REFM is currently overestimating the observed fluence, but does show a plausible trend by day 2 (1 Jan). The 27-day recurrence is currently providing reasonably good guidance.