MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-12-27T12:12:55
There are no signs of likely mechanisms to reduce electron counts at GEO in the period as geomagnetism from the current fast wind wanes. Electron flux is expected to remain at largely High levels with corresponding Active fluence persisting.
MOSWOC REFM and persistence both show an extended period of Active high energy electron fluence. The REFM recurrence is deemed the most likely version of events, with current observed fluence running just below persistence but with a similar profile.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-12-27T12:12:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 5% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 80% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 70% | 1% |