Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-12-25T00:04:19

There are no signs of likely mechanisms to reduce electron counts at GEO in the period as geomagnetism from the current fast wind wanes, and Active fluence is therefore Expected throughout. The diurnal oscillation in electron flux has risen day on day into the Christmas period, and this will most likely continue. There has only been a modest recent decline as we approach the usual diurnal minimum, suggesting levels for 25 December may yet be higher. There is therefore an increasing risk of persistent periods of High and a perhaps a chance of Very High.

MOSWOC REFM and persistence both show an extended period of Active high energy electron fluence. The REFM forecast suggests a rise to Very Active levels, which is considered a rising Slight Chance as solar wind pressure gradually eases through the period.