Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-12-23T00:56:25

High energy electron flux has seen some brief periods of High, but mostly persisted at Background to Moderate. Given the observed strong connection to the fast winds of CH09/+ and recent minor geomagnetic storming, along with the previously elevated flux levels, charging has likely occurred at lower orbits. As solar wind pressure eases through the coming days, the Van Allen Belt will expand outward to incorporate GEO, leading to the observed flux at to rise. This is similar to the previous rotation, with persistently High flux then expected. The only potential reduction could occur on day 3-4 (25-26 Dec) if any glancing CME arrival is observed, however this is considered very unlikely. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to rise above Active (1e8 integrated pfu) on day 1 (23 Dec), and this is supported by both MOSWOC REFM and 27-day recurrence. However REFM often overestimates the expected values on these occasions, with only a slight chance of reaching Very Active (1e9 integrated pfu).