Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-12-20T00:07:58

Electron Flux is expected to be at Moderate to High levels through days 1 and 2 (20 and 21 Dec) as the recent fast winds of CH08/- continue to wane and electrons relax back into their usual orbits within the Van Allen belts. The next HSS from CH09/+ may arrive from later day 2 (21 Dec) but more confidently into days 3 and 4 (22 and 23 Dec), with an anticipated reduction in electron populations.

Electron Fluence is expected to begin at Active levels, likely persisting into day 2 (21 Dec). However, with the anticipated arrival of the next coronal hole fast wind fluence levels should reduce into days 3 and 4.  MOSWOC REFM is thought to give a reasonable overall guide at present.