MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-12-17T12:32:17
Electron Flux is expected to be background to Moderate at first, with an increasing risk of reaching High levels during the diurnal maxima as the High Speed Stream of CH08/- wanes in coming days and electrons relax back into their usual orbits within the Van Allen belts.
Associated Electron Fluence levels are expected to rise in coming days, with a Slight Chance of reaching Active later in the forecast period. MOSWOC REFM output supports a gradually increasing fluence trend in the coming days, possibly reaching Active by days 3-4 (19-20 Dec), although this is currently Low confidence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-12-17T12:32:17 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |