Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-12-15T12:59:30

The fast wind from CH06/- reached a similar peak speed to that seen from its predecessor 27 days ago. This same feature then led to 24-hour integrated electron fluence approaching Active by the equivalent of day 2 (Tuesday 16 Dec), before counts at GEO were lowered by the following - more modest - equivalent of CH08/-. A similar evolution is expected on this rotation, with an eventual and short-lived Slight Chance of Active fluence on Tuesday, or perhaps, Wednesday (UTC).

MOSWOC REFM suggests a gradually rising fluence trend, reaching Active on Tuesday 16 Dec. However, observations are currently significantly below model predictions, which is likely to give a reduced Slight Chance of reaching this threshold.