Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-12-15T00:21:43

The fast wind from CH06/- reached a similar peak speed to that seen from its predecessor 27 days ago. This same feature then led to 24-hour integrated electron fluence approaching Active by the equivalent of day 2 (Tuesday 16 December), before counts at GEO were lowered by the following - more modest - equivalent of CH08/-. A similar evolution is expected on this rotation, with an eventual and short-lived Chance of Active fluence peaking on Tuesday (UTC).

MOSWOC REFM suggests a gradually rising fluence trend, reaching Active on Tuesday 16 December. However, observations are currently significantly below model predictions, which is likely to give a reduced Chance of reaching this threshold.