MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-12-10T00:33:37
GOES19 >2 MeV electron flux is mainly Moderate to High during the diurnal maximum after the previous enhancements. With CME arrivals anticipated in coming days this is likely to reduce further to Background, with only a modest recovery likely by the end of the period, perhaps back to Moderate.
The associated 24 hour fluence will most likely persist below Active (1e8 integrated pfu). This is supported by REFM, which is currently providing good guidance, however this model will not take account of any upcoming CME arrivals.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-12-10T00:33:37 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |