MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-12-09T00:16:43
GOES19 >2 MeV electron flux is currently at Moderate levels, with the diurnal peak at slightly lower levels compared to the previous 24 hours. With CME arrivals anticipated in coming days this is likely to lead to further declines in levels. The Met Office REFM output is forecasting a reduction and this is considered to offer good guidance.
The associated 24 hour fluence will most likely persist below Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold levels through this coming guidance period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-12-09T00:16:43 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |