Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-12-07T13:16:41

GOES19 >2 MeV electron flux been moderate to diurnally high over the past few days. The electron counts have likely increased at lower orbits. As solar wind pressure is expected to decrease through Day 1 and most of Day 2 (07-08 Dec) , electron flux at GEO is expected to continue rising— with diurnally high levels likely. However, any geomagnetic activity associated with CMEs possible between Days 1-2 (07–08 Dec) could suppress this increase, reducing confidence in the forecast significantly.

The associated electron fluence is currently below Active, but on a rising trend, with a likelihood of reaching Active by the end of Day 1 (07 Dec) and into Day 2 (08 Dec). REFM guidance supports this near term outlook, showing a continued upward daily trend that exceeds Active levels later Day 1 (07 Dec), but is viewed as low confidence thereafter due to potential CME influence. Recurrence also not a reliable indicator at present however due to the numerous CME arrivals observed during the previous 27-day rotation.