Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-12-06T13:16:15

GOES19 >2 MeV electron flux been at largely moderate levels the past 24 hours, but became diurnally high for a time. The electron counts have likely increased at lower orbits due to recent coronal hole and possible CME activity. As solar wind pressure decreases over the next few days, electron flux at GEO is expected to continue rising—initially with diurnally high levels, potentially becoming more persistently high later in the period. However, any geomagnetic activity from the low-probability glancing CMEs expected between late Day 1 and Day 3 (06–08 Dec) could suppress this increase, reducing confidence in the forecast.

The associated electron fluence is currently below Active, but on a rising trend, with a Chance of reaching Active by the end of Day 1 (06 Dec), then becoming a likelihood through Day 2 (07 Dec). REFM guidance supports this outlook, showing a continued upward daily trend that exceeds Active levels later in the period. Recurrence is not a reliable indicator at present due to the numerous CME arrivals observed during the previous 27-day rotation.