Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-12-05T12:29:57

GOES19 >2 MeV electron flux is currently Background to Moderate, having been supressed at GEO due to the increased solar wind pressure of the recent fast wind enhancement from CH04/-, and possible CME inclusion. However, this has likely increased the electron counts through lower orbits, and as this solar wind pressure eases it is expected that the flux at GEO will rise, becoming Moderate day 1 (05 Dec) and expected to peak High from day 2 (06 Dec). However, any geomagnetic activity, perhaps from the low risk glancing CME on day 2-3 (06-07 Dec), could limit this, leading to reduced confidence by day 4 (08 Dec). 

The associated electron fluence is currently below Active, but expected to see a rising trend, with a likelihood of reaching Active by the end of day 2 (06 Dec), or day 3 (07 Dec). This is somewhat supported by REFM which shows an ongoing rising trend to above Active, although this is too early with the expected rise. Recurrence is currently not a good proxy for current conditions due to the number of CME arrivals that were observed on the previous 27-day rotation.