Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-12-03T13:17:17

GOES19 >2 MeV electron flux has been persistently High after recent coronal hole enhancement. This is expected to continue through day 1 but with a declining trend, perhaps allowing for more extended periods of Moderate to Background flux to occur from later day 1 or day 2 (03-04 Dec). Any subsequent fast wind enhancement from CH04/-, either late day 1 or day 2 (03-04 Dec), is also likely to bring a reduction in the observed flux.

The associated 24 hour fluence is Active (above 1e8 integrate pfu) and is expected to continue at this level until any subsequent drop out is observed, most likely day 2 (04 Dec).  Observations remain higher than both REFM forecast and recurrence, likely due to the previous rotation being dominated by CME arrivals.