Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-12-01T13:26:52

GOES19 >2 MeV electron flux has been persistent High after recent coronal hole enhancement. This is expected to continue through day 1-2 but with a declining trend, perhaps allowing for periods of Moderate to Background to occur from later day 2 or day 3 (02-03 Dec). Any subsequent fast wind enhancement from CH04, either late day 3 or day 4 (03-04 Dec), is then likely to bring a drop out in the observed flux for a time. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is Active (above 1e8 integrate pfu) and is expected to continue at this level until any subsequent drop out is observed, most likely on day 3 or day 4 (02-03 Dec).  This is a slower decline than suggested with 27-day recurrence, as the previous rotation was dominated by CME arrivals, but also quicker than current REFM expectations as this would not be accounting for the expected declining solar wind speed, along with any subsequent drop out of flux from any connection to CH04.