Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-30T12:09:24

GOES19 >2 MeV electron flux is at generally Moderate to High levels and likely to remain at this level through the majority, if not all, of the four-day forecast as the recent HSS influence gradually eases and electron populations at GEO remain enhanced. Some reduction in flux is possible, this considered most likely to occur towards the end of the current forecast period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold for much of the period. The reduction in confidence indicated later in the period is due to uncertainty in the longevity of this event. REFM broadly supports the current forecast rationale, keeping the fluence above the Active threshold throughout. There remains a slight chance of reaching the Very High (>1e9 integrated PFU) threshold in the period.