Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-28T00:18:26

GOES19 >2 MeV electron flux is at High levels and likely to remain at this level through the majority, if not all, of the four-day forecast as the strong HSS of CH98/+ gradually eases and electron populations at GEO remain enhanced. Some periods of Moderate flux are possible, this considered most likely to occur towards the end of the current forecast period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold for much of the period. The reduction in confidence indicated later in the period is due to uncertainty in the longevity of this event. REFM broadly supports the current forecast rationale, keeping the fluence above the Active threshold throughout. However, REFM is overestimating current fluence levels and is indicating fluence levels reaching Very Active from late today. This is considered unlikely, with only a slight chance of becoming Very High (>1e9 integrated PFU) forecast for today and tomorrow.