MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-26T00:22:38
GOES19 >2 MeV electron flux will probably now remain at Moderate to High levels throughout much of this guidance period, as the high speed stream of coronal hole 98 begins to wane.
The associated 24 hour fluence will most probably rise above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on Day 1 (26 Nov) and probably remain at similar enhanced levels throughout. This is generally supported by 27-day recurrence and REFM forecast in the latter part of the forecast period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-11-26T00:22:38 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 10% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 20% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 10% |