MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-23T13:11:23
GOES19 >2 MeV electron flux is Background to Moderate, and expected to persist at this level, perhaps dropping out to persistently Background by Day 3 (25 Nov) with any fast wind enhancement that occurs from CH98/99.
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to continue below Active (1e8 integrated pfu), as supported by REFM guidance and 27-day recurrence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-11-23T13:11:23 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |