Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-21T12:12:26

GOES19 >2 MeV electron flux was at Moderate to High levels, reaching a peak of 2880 pfu at diurnal maximum, however the extent and persistence of this is Low confidence. Little overall change in coming days is likely with Moderate levels probably maintained and reaching High during each diurnal maximum, especially for Days 1 and 2 (21 and 22 Nov).

The associated 24hr fluence remains just below the active threshold. Observed values are currently significantly higher than either REFM or persistence, which lowers confidence and on balance, fluence is considered likely to remain just below the Active threshold throughout the guidance period.