Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-21T00:38:20

GOES19 >2 MeV electron flux was at Moderate to High levels, peaking 2880 pfu at diurnal maximum, however the extent and persistence of this is Low confidence. A decrease in electron flux is possible, with further influence from CH96/- likely to give some enhanced geomagnetic activity at times through Day 1 (21 Nov).

The associated 24hr fluence may see a slight reduction in the first half of the period, perhaps followed by a modest recovery. Observed values are currently significantly higher than either REFM or persistence, which lowers confidence. However, the flat or slightly downward trends shown by both models over the next few days look reasonable.

On balance, fluence is thought likely to remain below the Active threshold throughout the forecast period.