Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-19T13:21:36

GOES19 >2 MeV electron flux is currently Background to Moderate. With recent fast winds now eased, there is a chance for flux to increase, perhaps bringing periods of High at diurnal maximum, however the extent and persistence of this is Low confidence. A decrease in electron flux is possible following the connection to fast winds from CH96/-, however the expected muted geomagnetic response from this should mean that any reduction in flux is minimal, with any subsequent increase that follows to also be fairly muted. 

The associated 24hr fluence is expected to see a flat, or slight rising, trend at first. A reduction in fluence is then possible following the expected fast winds, ahead of another rise as those fast winds ease, this most likely to occur beyond this period. As a result, fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout the forecast period.